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Environment Committee

Inquiry into Climate Change

Queen’s University Belfast submission to the Northern Ireland Assembly’s
Environment Committee Inquiry into Climate Change

Co-ordinated and compiled by Dr. John Barry, Assistant Director, Institute for a Sustainable World

Introduction

The scientific case for the significance of anthropogenic emissions in climate change is now proven beyond doubt. There is no scientific debate about the reality or anthropogenic climate change–with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change presenting the most authoritative science on the matter. What debate there is should be about how we as societies and a species adapt to inevitable climate change while also at the same time seek to mitigate the causes of that change. If CO² and methane emissions are not curbed and radically reduced, global temperatures will continue to rise faster than at any time in world history. Even if we take effective action now, global temperatures will continue to rise for many decades. The effect of global warming seems to be such that global warming is accelerated e.g. loss of rainforest, melting of permafrost, and decline in area of ice cap, acidification of seawater. Climatic change involves other challenges including a greater frequency of severe weather conditions and more extremes. These factors influence many areas of human endeavour and interest from our food supply to shelter, from health to wealth creation. Climate change interacts with many other environmental challenges e.g. habitat loss, invasive species, eutrophication, such as to exacerbate their impacts locally, nationally and throughout the world.

One cannot separate climate change policy from energy policy in general and the ‘managed retreat’ from fossil fuel based heating, transport and electricity production. Climate change must therefore be explicitly sand consistently linked to low-carbon energy proposals and strategies.

The point at which science delivered incontrovertible evidence of climatic change and its impact was in the late 1990s. Sceptics tend to have vested interests or are self publicists and lack any credibility in the wider scientific community. Their arguments

usually relate to time scales far in excess of the rate of change recorded over the last 30 years. Governments and people have done little of any importance in addressing the problem since the 1990s. They are now distracted by economic issues at least for the short term. Globally, environmental problems will increase during this period.

As scientists we are used to being cautious and not extrapolating our results. As people we do think about the future. The scales are human - 10s of years or a few 100s. The future looks bleak. Governments seem incapable of grasping the magnitude of the challenge and the short period we have left to offset the worst of the impacts of climate change. We have reached and gone beyond the ‘tipping’ point and our only hope of avoiding the worst impacts of climatic change is to reduce greenhouse gases in the face of rising temperatures in the hope that the ‘tipping’ point can be passed. We know we can get ever hotter. We don’t know if this can be reversed. The 21st century looks like an increasingly unpleasant world with the failure of global and regional political structures, resource wars and major human catastrophes.

Northern Ireland is a small part of a medium sized but highly developed, democratic country in world terms and together with the Republic of Ireland is an island ecological entity. We should expect to be involved in taking a lead in combating climatic change and adapting to the challenges ahead. We must contribute to meeting and exceeding all targets for carbon reduction and getting involved in adaptation measures. It c annot be an issue that we leave to others. Similarly it is an issue that people c annot leave to their governments. A politician who does not accept his or her responsibility to deal with the most significant of problems facing all people is a like a health minister denying the existence of lung cancer and the influence of cigarette smoking.

Science has delivered the answer to the initial questions about whether the global climate is changing and what are the root causes of this change. Science also provided the solutions but delays in taking action and the speed of change are such that we are no longer sure these will work, or work in the most effective m anner. Hence, the emphasis now is on a technological fix. This may prove an ‘opportunity’ even here in Northern Ireland. However, there is not a single technological fix that is affordable, risk free and environmentally sustainable and doubt even more it is an opportunity for Northern Ireland. Rapid changes in our approach to food production, energy generation, transport, built environment and so on could overall make a difference and would offer sustainable employment within Northern Ireland. Climate change is not only as Lord Stern pointed out, ‘the greatest market failure in history’ but also one that provides the opportunity for economies to decarbonise and for those willing to lead to take ‘first mover advantage’ in investing now in renewable, low-carbon technologies and sectors, and encouraging the uptake of low carbon lifestyles so as to be ‘fit for purpose’ for the inevitable transition to a low-carbon future in a climate changed world.

1. Summary Points

  1. The Northern Ireland Environment Committee, Executive and Assembly should categorically state its support for an international climate change agreement to limit global warming to no more than 2° Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures.
  2. The UK Act does not set specific, legally binding emissions reduction targets for the devolved administrations. The Executive and Assembly should urgently make commitments to introduce a Northern Ireland Climate Change Act setting a legally binding regional target to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions by 80% from 1990 levels by 2050, in line with the UK Climate Change Act and targets agreed by the Scottish Executive and the Irish government.
  3. To ensure we achieve an immediate and sustained decline in Northern Ireland’s greenhouse gas the Executive should set an “intermediate” target for emissions in 2020 (42% below 1990 levels), a series of legally binding 5 year “carbon budgets” and an annual carbon reduction target at an average of at least 3% per annum.
  4. The Committee on Climate Change’s role in Northern Ireland should be enhanced to facilitate the setting and monitoring of Northern Ireland specific budgets and action plans.
  5. Serious consideration should be given to creating a new Department of Climate Change and Energy following the UK government’s lead, amalgamating elements from the DETI, DoE and DRD.
  6. The energy (efficiency and renewable), housing and transport sectors should be targeted for initial emissions reductions.
  7. All plans, programmes and policies should be assessed to determine their contribution to or impact on achieving demanding carbon budgets.
  8. Each government department should investigate the opportunities and obstacles to carbon reductions within their competency areas and develop departmental and sectoral action plans to achieve reduction targets.
  9. The Public Sector procurement budget should be used as a tool to deliver significant emissions reductions as well as support emerging markets for low-carbon energy technologies and encourage low-carbon lifestyle changes.
  10. As far as possible solutions to climate change should also be linked to the decarbonisation of the economy, the managed transition to a low carbon economy and the creation of a new green economy with employment, investment and wealth creation opportunities.
  11. Government should invest in emissions reductions and low carbon infrastructure now; the Stern Review concludes this is the economically prudent path to follow.
  12. The legal responsibility to deliver the targets set in a Northern Ireland Climate Change Act, and through carbon budgets, should fall collectively on the Executive.
  13. Specific responsibilities to deliver the targets set in the Climate Act and in the carbon budgets should be identified in public service agreements for each Northern Ireland department.
  14. The Environment Committee should share responsibility for scrutinising progress towards achieving the targets in the Act and within budgets with all other departments.
  15. There is an opportunity for the Committee to consider political innovations in terms of mobilising citizens in Northern Ireland not only to ‘do their bit’ in adopting less carbon-intensive lifestyles but also by exploring innovative forms of ‘sustainability citizenship’ to mobilise and enthuse communities and citizens to take part in decarbonising the NI economy.
  16. There is a pressing need for the Assembly and Executive to demonstrate leadership on this issue, to help prepare Northern Ireland citizens for the inevitable transition to a low carbon future.

Inquiry’s Terms of Reference

1.To identify initial commitments for Northern Ireland that will ensure it plays a fair and proportionate role as part of the UK in meeting climate change targets.

1.1 The Assembly should categorically state its support for an international climate change agreement to limit global warming to no more than 2° Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures because most scientists accept that ‘dangerous climate change’ is much more likely above this temperature increase.

1.2 To limit global temperature rise to no more than 2ºC the IPCC suggests that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations should be limited to a maximum of 450 parts per million.

1.3 The Assembly has accepted that the provisions of the UK Climate Act will be extended to Northern Ireland. However, the UK Act does not set specific emission reduction targets for the devolved administrations.

1.4 Northern Ireland’s per capita emissions of 12.83 tonnes per annum compares badly with the UK average of 10.48 tonnes, the global average of 4 tonnes and the global fair share of 1.65 tonnes. Northern Ireland has a higher Carbon Footprint than Scotland and Wales, and only the South-East region of England is higher and NI is the only region in the UK in which CO² emissions are increasing.

1.5 The Executive and Assembly should urgently make commitments to introduce a Northern Ireland Climate Change Actwith a legally binding regional target to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions by 80% from 1990 levels by 2050. This is the minimum requirement that will be necessary to play our part in the global attempt to avoid ‘dangerous climate change’.

1.6 To ensure we achieve an immediate and sustained decline in Northern Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions the Executive should set an ‘intermediate’ target for emissions in 2020, a series of legally binding 5 year ‘carbon budgets’ and an annual carbon reduction target at an average of at least 3% per annum. Combining indicative annual milestones with the legal framework of the budget periods should offer flexibility without compromising longer term targets.

1.7 The Committee on Climate Change’s role in Northern Ireland should be enhanced to facilitate the setting and monitoring of Northern Ireland specific budgets and action plans. The Committee on Climate Change’s reports on progress and action plans should be delivered to the Assembly and responded to by the Executive.

1.8 The Committee on Climate Change should help ensure co-ordination of emissions reduction efforts across the UK. Carbon emissions in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland are closely interlinked and provision should be made to enable joint achievement of emissions reduction goals.

1.9 Adaptation is intrinsically linked to mitigation, and it is essential that both be addressed as a matter of urgency. The Northern Ireland Assembly should introduce cross-departmental policies and measures which will allow people, infrastructure, biodiversity and natural systems to adapt to changing climatic conditions.

1.10 An adaptation strategy to detail how human infrastructure and natural systems will be managed to help them adapt to a range of climate change scenarios should be developed. It is particularly important that climate change impacts are a strong consideration in all decisions relating to nature conservation and archaeological sites. New ways of looking at designated sites (e.g. buffer zones, corridors, low intensity networks and landscape scale actions) will be required for wildlife to adapt to changing climatic conditions. Archaeological sites which may be affected by the impacts of climate change should be assessed and managed accordingly.

2. To consider the necessary actions and a route map for each significant sector in Northern Ireland (energy, transport, agriculture and land use, business, domestic, public sector etc)

2.1 The Committee on Climate Change’s statutory duty to Northern Ireland includes:
To provide advice on the sectors of the economy in which there are particular opportunities for contributions to be made towards meeting the budgets through reductions in emissions.

2.2 The Committee on Climate Change’s first report was released in December 2008. It includes an analysis of the opportunities that exist for making emission reductions in Northern Ireland. It states, “ Northern Ireland could contribute emissions reductions of over 2MtCO 2e (Million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) per year in 2020:

2.3 The actions outlined above are not adequate to keep Northern Ireland on target to achieve an 80% emissions reduction target. The Committee on Climate Change’s role in Northern Ireland should be enhanced to facilitate the setting of Northern Ireland specific budgets and action plans.

2.4 Each government department should investigate the opportunities for carbon reductions within their areas of responsibility.

2.5 The government can lead by example by introducing systems and efficiencies which they would like the public and industry to follow, including greater use of public transport and other non-car based transportation or the use and encouragement of new technologies such as video-conferencing to reduce travel or working at home initiatives.

2.6 The Public Sector procurement budget should be used as a tool to deliver significant emissions reductions.

2.7 Approximately 500,000 homes in Northern Ireland have either no loft insulation or have insulation below the recommended levels of 270mm while some 70,000 homes would benefit from cavity wall insulation. The Assembly should set annual targets to upgrade the existing housing stock to recommended insulation levels. All new homes should be zero carbon by 2016.

2.8 A Strategic Energy Framework target of sourcing 15% of all our energy (electricity, transport and heat) from renewable sources by 2020 (the target set for the UK in the EU Climate and Energy Package) will act as the driving forces towards a low carbon society.

2.9 To achieve the energy target it is estimated over 40% of electricity would have to be produced from renewable sources and renewable sources would also have to provide a significant source (5-10%) of energy for heating purposes. It is estimated that by 2050 micro-generation could supply 30-40% of the UK’s electricity needs. Government will have to provide additional support to renewable technologies to achieve the 15% target. This may include:

2.10 Transport was responsible for around 30% of Northern Ireland’s CO 2 emissions in 2004, highlighting the need for tailored transport solutions in Northern Ireland. At present, highway measures have been allocated 80% of the transport spend. Only by increasing the share of the budget for other transport modes (walking, cycling and public transport) will significant strides be taken towards ending this reliance.

2.11 Spatial and land-use pl anners have a key role to play in delivering a low-carbon economy and a resilient environment and society. Pl anners should make decisions only after they have considered how the development will contribute to mitigation efforts and whether the site and design are appropriate given the predicted impacts of climate change in Northern Ireland.

2.12 Support for local start up businesses to provide the services needed for larger and deeper engagement with the energy question. For example more grants to homeowners for PV systems and other renewable energy technologies, and more support for companies to install these. Support for the training needed for installation personnel and maintenance personnel.

2.13 Medium to long term initiatives to the universities and industry to develop next generation solutions, appropriate to the infrastructure, economic strategy and climate in NI.

3. To identify the costs associated with meeting these obligations and compare them with the costs that will be incurred if they are not achieved.

3.1 The Stern Review calculated that the dangers of unabated climate change would be equivalent to at least 5% of GDP each year. However, when more recent scientific evidence is included in the models, the Review estimates that the dangers could be equivalent to 20% of GDP or more. In contrast, the costs of action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst impacts of climate change can be limited to around 1% of global GDP each year. The central message is that reducing emissions today will make us better off in the future. One model predicts benefits of up to $2.5 trillion each year if the world shifts to a low carbon path.

3.1.1 Lord Stern in a recent London School of Economics report has stipulated that government needs to commit to at least a 20% investment of any fiscal stimulus packages to decarbonise the economy and support the green/environmental goods and services sector, especially supporting renewable energy innovation and mass market penetration.

3.2 The significant emissions reductions proposed for the UK in the Committee on Climate Change’s first report can be achieved without harming the economy and at a cost less than 1% of GDP in 2020. In other words, an economy that might grow by 30% in the period to 2020 would instead grow by 29%. The Committee on Climate Change advises that this is a price worth paying, given the long-term costs of inaction on climate change.

3.3 The All Island Grid Study suggested that 42% of power generation could come from renewable sources in 2020 without a debilitating increase in cost (7%) compared to continuing with our current energy mix. The cost differential will lessen as fossil fuel prices increase.

3.4 The renewable sector in Germany supports 170,000 people and existing German government support measures promoting renewable energy could create 130,000 new jobs by 2020 according to the German environment ministry.

3.5 The Prime Minister stated that the overall added value of the low carbon energy sector by 2050 could be as high as $3 trillion per year worldwide and that it could employ more than 25 million people.

3.6 The Carbon Trust estimates that more than 70,000 jobs could be created in the UK by investing in and developing offshore wind technology, while the Prime Minister stated that 160,000 jobs will be created in the UK in the renewable energy sector over the next decade and 20,000 in the energy efficiency sector alone.

3.7 Government should see investment in a low carbon future as a way to stimulate the local economy (as President Obama has in the USA). The move to renewable fuels may help develop industries that will provide economic opportunities and jobs. Given the huge potential that exists around our shores for wind power there are sound economic and environmental reasons for ensuring that a significant proportion of these jobs are developed in Northern Ireland.

3.8 Action Renewables estimate that almost 6,000 short term and 400 long term jobs could be sustained in Northern Ireland, exclusively by developing renewable energy within the region.

3.9 Invest NI’s Maximising Business Opportunities fromSustainable Energy recommends that Northern Ireland should focus its sustainable energy efforts on four technology areas:

3.10 Climate change is one of the biggest threats to development: it could undo decades of progress in fighting poverty and compromise the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) which aim to reduce poverty and promote sustainable development by 2015.

3.11 The SNIFFER report on the impacts of climate change on Northern Ireland identified a number of direct effects, mostly negative, on human health, the economy, natural habitats and water resources, for example, the extent of flood risk to existing settlements remains unquantified compared with the situation in Great Britain.

3.12 The SNIFFER report identified some of adaptation mechanisms and changes needed in key sectors – transport (reducing Northern Ireland’s dependence on car-based mobility), housing (insulating our extremely energy inefficient housing stock), and electricity (our vulnerability to foreign sources of fossil fuel, especially natural gas).

3.13 In the transport sector urgent action is need to encourage a ‘modal shift’ away from car-based mobility towards other forms of mobility. The rough base-line is that 80% of journeys in NI is car-based according to a 2006 DRD Roads Service Northern Ireland Travel Survey 2003-2005. Achieving the modal shift targets in the Regional Transportation Strategy would make significant carbon savings.

3.14 Northern Ireland’s Chief Medical Officer Michael McBride has said,
“Current predictions on climate change suggest greater long-term impacts on health than any current public health priority. To preserve health in a changing climate, we need to modify and strengthen the systems we have to adapt to the likely future impacts of global warming. We must tackle this issue on all fronts, reducing our contribution to the problem and responding to the effects of climate change is a shared international responsibility.”

3.15 As the OECD’s Ministerial Environment Policy Committee it late last year: “Removing subsidies to carbon-intensive technologies, pricing pollution and creating a “level playing field” is also important to enable low carbon alternatives to compete fairly in the market, and to find ways of helping these technologies to move quickly into the market-place”. Removing these perverse subsidies could provide the necessary incentive as well as potential sources of funding to provide the investment for a strategy towards a low-carbon, green economy in NI.

3.16 Results from the 2008 Northern Limits: Footpaths to Sustainability report, approximately 80% of the Carbon Footprint of Northern Ireland residents relate to three policy areas: namely housing, transport and energy.

3.17 In the agriculture/agri-food sector lower carbon footprint production methods based on less use of chemical fertilisers will also deliver win-wins by reducing diffuse agricultural pollution contributing to compliance with the Nitrates Directive and reduction of eutrophication pressure as required under the Water Framework Directive.

3.18 The universities and some companies have capability to carry out costing, but it must be whole life costs and must be based on clearly agreed system boundaries. These are very easy to fudge depending on the point of view taken – costs can be pushed from one sector to another giving a false impression. Although some previous studies have indentified costs these are often aggregated over a large system, for example UK or EU and not necessarily what is needed for the NI region.

4. To identify a formal cost effective mechanism for assessing the potential impact of new policies on climate change / CO 2 emissions. (Akin to Regulatory Impact Assessments/Rural Proofing)

4.1 The Committee on Climate Change’s role in Northern Ireland should be enhanced to facilitate the setting of Northern Ireland specific budgets and action plans. Sharing this resource with the rest of the UK would help minimise costs.

4.2 All plans, programmes and policies should be assessed using Climate Impact Assessments to determine their contribution to or impact on achieving carbon budgets. The process should be akin to equality screening and should be initiated at the start of policy design to maximise outcomes and minimise costs.

4.3 All plans, strategies and policies should be assessed also using ‘materials flow analysis’ methodology as employed and demonstrated in Northern Limits: Footpaths to Sustainability research project which looked at sustainability policy scenarios for Northern Ireland. Key here is the use of assessment tools, decision-making and scenario-building policy tools which use physical and not just monetary evaluations and metrics.

4.4. As the Northern Limits report put it

Northern Ireland needs a fit-for-purpose environmental-socio-economic framework for policy development underpinned by a robust evidence base to enable the management of the transition to a low carbon economy. To achieve this resource and carbon accounting needs to be fully integrated with ‘traditional’ economic pl anning. Northern Ireland needs a framework which allows the forecasts for investment and economic development to be integrated with a backcasting process which sets out how this economic development can be decoupled from increasing resource use and carbon emissions. Namely, an integrated economic and environmental accounting framework which allows budget forecasts for investment to be made in conjunction with year-on-year carbon reduction budgets.

5. To make recommendations for appropriate targets/actions that could be included in the new Northern Ireland Sustainable Development Implementation Plan.

What is needed are:

  1. A definition of the northern Ireland energy system to a detailed level
  2. Models accurately reflecting the behaviour of elements.
  3. A roadmap of technology developments needed
  4. A roadmap of the business developments needed to fulfill the new energy efficient economy.
  5. A targeted and generous system of incentives to encourage developments

We need to do this like the Republic of Ireland did with its road building programmes. Investment at a fundamental level and an open system of opportunities. If the government can put the business ‘road network’ in place then business will use it, and bring the new technology to people at a more cost effective level and uptake will improve.

5.1 The key climate targets that the SD Strategy should deliver are those identified in a Northern Ireland Climate Act, carbon budgets and annual targets. The targets are annual 3% reduction in CO² and 80% reduction by 2050. However, demanding intermediate targets with implementation strategies and regular monitoring against progress updates are needed for 5 year periods 2015, 2020, 2025 etc.

5.2 The SD Strategy and Implementation Plan should also help deliver the recommendations on how to achieve emissions reductions put forward by the Committee on Climate Change.

5.3 The SD Strategy and Implementation Plan could play an important role in helping to inform and empower individuals to take action to tackle climate change.

5.4 The Northern Ireland Vision Study found that a step change in improving the building regulations from 2012 to demand zero emission buildings will achieve most of the required reduction in the Carbon Footprint, demolition rates of older and energy-inefficient buildings will have to increase or more householders will need to be motivated and incentivised to use renewable energy from before 2012.

6. To make recommendations on a public service agreement for the DOE Climate Change Unit’s commitments in the second Programme for Government that will ensure Northern Ireland will meet its climate change obligations.

6.1 The Executive and Assembly should urgently make commitments to introduce a Northern Ireland Climate Change Actwith a legally binding regional target to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions by 80% from 1990 levels by 2050. This is the minimum requirement that will be necessary to play our part in the global attempt to avoid dangerous climate change. However, we also require transparent and achievable interim targets set at 5 year intervals.

6.2 To ensure we achieve an immediate and sustained decline in Northern Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions the Executive should set an ‘intermediate’ target for emissions in 2015, a series of legally binding 5 year ‘carbon budgets’ and an annual carbon reduction target at an average of at least 3% per annum.

6.3 The legal responsibility to deliver the targets set in a Northern Ireland Climate Change Act, and through the carbon budgets, should fall collectively on the Executive.

6.4 Specific responsibilities to deliver the targets set in the Climate Act and in the carbon budgets should be identified in public service agreements for each Northern Ireland department. Departments should prepare action plans on how they intend to deliver their reduction targets.

6.5 Sharing responsibility to meet targets across the Executive and departments is the only way to ensure that all parts of government play their part in delivering the targets.

6.6 A public service agreement should be drafted for the Department of the Environment which would include a commitment to provide information and support to the other departments to help deliver the targets set in a Northern Ireland Climate Change Act and in the carbon budgets.

6.7 The second Programme for Government should explicitly put climate change, the decarbonising of the economy and sustainable development at its heart and have an implementation and investment strategy to achieve those objectives.

7. To consider what secondary legislation raising powers within the UK Climate Change Act would contribute to Northern Ireland’s commitment to the UK Climate Change Bill.

7.1 The Executive and Assembly should urgently make commitments to introduce a Northern Ireland Climate Change Act with a legally binding regional target to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions by 80% from 1990 levels by 2050.

7.2 The introduction of primary legislation in Northern Ireland will enable secondary legislation to be introduced to set 5-year carbon budgets and annual carbon targets (3% annual emissions reductions is a minimum) for the region.

7.3 Secondary legislation under a Northern Ireland Act should be used to impose public sector duties to deliver targets and to set sectoral targets for emissions reductions.

7.4 The role of the Committee on Climate Change should also be set and amended via secondary legislation.

7.5 The UK Act enables targets to be reviewed and amended but the 2020 and 2050 targets should only be amended based on the best available scientific advice.

7.6 The Assembly should introduce secondary legislation where appropriate to enable carbon reduction targets to be met through requiring and enabling post-RPA Local Councils to contribute.

8. To express views on if and how the Assembly might conduct more effective scrutiny of climate change responsibilities across all relevant departments.

8.1 The Environment Committee should scrutinise progress towards achieving the targets in the Act and within budgets. The Minister should be asked to explain progress and outline plans to achieve the targets to the Committee

8.2 The ability of the Committees and the Assembly as a whole to scrutinise progress will be greatly enhanced by ensuring the Committee on Climate Change report to the Executive and the Assembly and that the Executive respond to their reports in the Assembly.

9. To produce a report on the findings and recommendations of the inquiry by September 2009.

9.1 The longer Northern Ireland delays significant and decisive action on climate change, the larger the task will become. Stern has concluded that early action makes economic sense. The greatest opportunities for job creation and market share in emerging technologies will also be delivered by responding early to the challenges we know we face. Therefore, the Committee should use its influence to encourage action now. Waiting until September to recommend that Northern Ireland should act on climate change, is only delaying the inevitable.

9.2 New multinational climate agreements being developed by the United Nations (the post Kyoto climate agreement should be finalised in Copenhagen in December 2009) and the European Union (the Energy and Climate Package was endorsed by the European Parliament in December 2008) will require the United Kingdom and ultimately Northern Ireland to significantly reduce emissions. Attempts to delay action on climate change will only make achieving the new responsibilities more difficult and costly.

9.3 The Committee’s Inquiry should be used as an opportunity to consolidate, integrate and where appropriate update existing climate change research on Northern Ireland. The 2005 Carbon Trust Northern Ireland Vision Study, for example, examined the prospects for reducing carbon emissions in five key sectors of the Northern Ireland economy and developed a set of scenarios and a model of Northern Ireland’s energy balance. The main conclusion of this work was that it was possible to realise a 60% reduction in Northern Ireland carbon emissions by 2050, if early action was taken to:

Other Carbon Trust research in NI has demonstrated that a maximum of 15% reduction in CO² emissions from housing can be achieved through behavioural change such as turning down the thermostat by 1°C and ensuring that appliances are not left on stand-by. Other research demonstrates that adopting as less carbon-intensive food diet (eating less red meat Dr Rajendra Pachauri, chair of the IPCC has recommended, or eating at home more and adopting a more vegetarian-based diet as the Northern Limits research found). These behavioural changes strategy should be linked to the point above about linking CO² reduction strategies to mobilising and empowering ‘sustainability citizens’.

UK-wide research such as the UK Foresight Programme Scenarios should also be used by the Committee to inform its deliberations.

Concluding Comments

If progress is to be made in moving towards achieving significant CO² emissions reduction and the transition to a low carbon economy and low carbon lifestyle then it is vital to know what the relative impact of production and consumption activities are. In the same way that all actions to reduce footprints are not equal, such as replacing incandescent light bulbs compared to travelling less, the impact of consumption activities are not equal. Transport and domestic energy use have the highest impact per pound spent.

The Committee should also take the ‘rebound effect’ of any putative policy initiatives into account. Rebound effects occur because efficiency improvements make certain activities cheaper compared to others but can undermine the overall strategy of meeting CO² targets. If financial benefits gained from lower fuel bills as a result of reducing energy consumption are then spent on high impact activities such as holidays then the CO² reduction benefits will be lost.

In Northern Ireland, tackling climate change requires ‘buy in’ from all major stakeholders – businesses, trades unions, the Northern Ireland Assembly, Executive and civil society. But such is the scale of the ‘triple crunch’ – economic, climate and energy insecurity – that we are facing; it is conceivable that such a coalition could be created and Government should be leading not following on this issue. In Northern Ireland tackling climate change and decarbonising our economy offers a way to harness the abundant renewable energy sources we have, link universities and energy companies, provide skills and training for the creation of a new and growing ‘green collar’ economy. To reduce carbon dramatically will require skills ranging from energy analysis, design and production of hi-tech renewable alternatives, large-scale engineering projects such as combined heat and power and offshore wind, through to work in making every building ‘energy tight’, and fitting more efficient energy systems in homes, offices and factories.

The scale of the challenges we face c annot be underestimated but then neither can the potential benefits. The most timely and targeted measures include those that promote smart energy-efficient public buildings and homes, and switching to cleaner types of transport, such as light-rail systems in cities such as Belfast.

However, tackling climate change in Northern Ireland or elsewhere should not simply be about spending public money. It is important that fiscal measures that are not explicitly ‘green’ do not make achieving climate change goals more difficult by subsidising greenhouse gas emissions or ‘locking in’ high-carbon infrastructure for decades to come. Hence, dealing with climate change should also include removing subsidies and other fiscal or financial incentives from forms of near-term infrastructural investment or technological innovation which maintains the unsustainable and therefore ultimately uneconomic ‘business as usual’ high-carbon energy economy.

Governments around the world are spending hundreds of billions attempting to stabilise the global economy.  Tackling climate change, using Stern’s recent analysis, requires that at least 20% of the stimulus packages that are now being developed should be targeted towards, not maintaining and sustaining the old economy of the twentieth century, but investing in the new economy of the twenty-first century. Northern Ireland is uniquely placed, not least in terms of its abundant renewable (especially wind and marine) energy resources, and with political, business, union and environmental leadership and partnership become a ‘green economy’ leader.

Scottish Finance Minster John Swinney laid out the Scottish government’s aim of seizing at least a 10 th of the estimated 160,000 renewable energy jobs that will be generated in the UK over the next 10 years. Across the UK the potential for new jobs in home energy efficiency is 20,000. There will also be new jobs in managing the risks associated with climate change. For example, additional public investment in new flood defences will generate new jobs. Unfortunately, at present, we here in Northern Ireland do not see the same determination and leadership we see in Scotland from our own executive. Without such leadership Northern Ireland runs the risk of losing out from the job and investment potential of the transition to a low-carbon, renewable energy economy.