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Environment Committee

Inquiry into Climate Change

Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) Northern Ireland -
Northern Ireland Assembly Environment Committee Inquiry into Climate Change

A written response from RSPB Northern Ireland, February 2009

1. The RSPB and its interest in the Committee’s Inquiry

The RSPB is the largest nature conservation charity in Europe, supported by over a million members of which around 11,000 live and support our work in Northern Ireland. We employ around 40 members of staff and invest £1.4 million in conservation work in Northern Ireland annually.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) involves many thousands of scientists from across the world. The RSPB believes the work of the IPCC provides the most authoritative opinion on the causes of climate change. The IPCC has concluded that:

‘Warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Most of the observed increase in global average temperature since the mid-20 th Century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. It is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent. During the past 50 years, the sum of solar and volcanic forcings would likely have produced cooling’ .

The RSPB considers that human-induced climate change is the greatest long-term threat to global biodiversity and will have very serious impacts on the wildlife of Northern Ireland and beyond. Up to one third of land-based species on earth could be committed to extinction by 2050 if we do not act to address this problem (see below).

We believe that rapid and deep emission cuts in developed countries, including Northern Ireland, are essential to avoiding dangerous climate change. This will require a massive reduction in energy use; action to curb the growth in aviation emissions; and a rapid switch from high to low carbon sources of energy.

For many years, we have been urging the Northern Ireland Assembly to introduce targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and measures to help Northern Ireland’s wildlife to adapt to the inevitable changes in the climate we will experience in the coming decades. We are also at the forefront of the understanding of the effects and impacts of climate change on wildlife through our scientific work and we pride ourselves on developing sound policies based on the very best science available.

In summary, to tackle the causes of climate change and to help wildlife to adapt to these changes, we believe the Northern Ireland government should commit to:

2. The impacts of climate change on wildlife

The following paragraphs explain the main threats to wildlife from climate change and the peer-reviewed science supporting our concerns in Northern Ireland and beyond.

2.1 Climate change is causing extinctions of our wildlife

Climate change has already begun to affect the natural world. Many species have become extinct or face an uncertain future if changes continue unabated. For example, research has shown that many species of frog in Costa Rica have gone extinct because higher temperatures have encouraged disease outbreaks(1). One study has estimated that even for medium-range climate-warming scenarios, 15-37% of species studied were ’committed to extinction’ unless immediate action was taken to tackle climate change(2).

2.2 Our wildlife is already moving because of climate change

Climate change is already affecting biodiversity in Britain and Ireland. In an analysis of 1,600 northern hemisphere species, it was found that the ranges had changed on average 6.1 km northward and 6.1 m upward(3). A recent briefing paper commissioned by the Sustainable Development Commission in Ireland has identified specifically the challenges climate change poses to wildlife across the island(4).

With collaborators at the University of Durham, the RSPB has attempted to predict the potential change in the distribution of all European breeding birds by the end of the 21 st century, by showing where suitable climate conditions are likely to be present(5). We have attached a copy of a summary of this work for the Committee’s use. Our results concur with those from other similar studies(6). In brief, we have found that:

Of course, our models assume that species and the resources they need, will be able to respond at the uniquely rapid rates required. The behaviour of some sedentary species and landscape fragmentation/physical barriers will limit the potential of these species to occupy future suitable range.

By ‘retro-fitting’ our models to known population trends for European birds, we have demonstrated that those species facing deteriorating climate conditions (e.g. redwing) tend to be declining whereas the populations of those that have improving climatic conditions (e.g. Dartford warbler) are increasing(7).

Milder winters are also affecting the vast numbers of birds that spend the winter in Britain and Ireland. Many wading birds and wildfowl are choosing to winter on the east coast of the UK, reducing their dependence on the milder west coast and saving birds the travel costs of getting there(8). This change in winter movements has been put forward as a potential cause of the recent massive declines in the numbers of diving ducks visiting Lough Neagh in the winter(9). A four-year research study at Queen’ University, funded by the Northern Ireland Environment Agency and the RSPB is aiming to examine this relationship.

2.3 Climate change is creating indirect impacts on our wildlife

Changes in climate can affect wildlife indirectly, by impacting on food supplies. For example, climate change is detrimentally affecting breeding seabirds, such as the puffin, in the North Sea as increases in sea surface temperatures impact plankton and ultimately reduce the availability of their favoured sandeel prey(10). Similar breeding failures for seabirds on Rathlin Island and other colonies around the North Channel may be related to the same pressure(11), and this is the subject of a major new research project undertaken by Queen’s University Belfast and funded by the Northern Ireland Environment Agency and the RSPB.

Warmer spring weather in recent decades has caused the advancement in the timing of spring events, such as egg laying or invertebrate emergence(12). One study has shown that spring events had advanced by an average of 2.8 days per decade(13). If bird breeding and food availability advance at different rates, significant reductions in productivity can result. For example, our research has shown that an increasing mismatch between the hatching of golden plover chicks (a ‘red-listed’ species in Northern Ireland(14)) and the peak supply of their favoured food, craneflies, is reducing the survival of chicks(15,16). Coupled with the desiccation of cranefly eggs in hotter summers, these threatened birds face a ‘double whammy’ of climate change impacts.

Unseasonably heavy summer rainfall can be detrimental, by increasing chilling of chicks and by reducing food availability(17,18). There is also some evidence that reduced rainfall in tropical areas is having an adverse impact on the populations of Northern Ireland’s trans-Saharan migrants, e.g. cuckoo, possibly again through effects on the food chain(19). The effects of sea level rise may also become very important for our coastal wildlife in Northern Ireland in the future(20), especially given some of the major impacts being seen already along the east coast of Britain.

3. Helping Northern Ireland’s wildlife through the Committee’s Inquiry

We have chosen to respond to each of the bullet points outlined in the Terms of Reference for the Committee’s inquiry:

To identify initial commitments for Northern Ireland that will ensure it plays a fair and proportionate role as part of the UK in meeting climate change targets
Adaptation for wildlife

Observed evidence and predictive models of nature’s response to climate change suggest that action is necessary to enable wildlife to adapt. The UK Government is committed to preparing an adaptation programme under the UK Climate Change Act. The Department of the Environment has indicated that the Climate Change Act ‘will generate a structure for ensuring Northern Ireland’s ability to adapt to climate change’. We believe adaptation measures for wildlife need to be central to the elements of the programme that apply in Northern Ireland.

Given that the changes are occurring against a continuing background of the loss of natural habitats (see results of the Northern Ireland Countryside Survey 2007(21)) and fragmentation, many species may struggle to survive in Northern Ireland. The RSPB is developing an agenda with the UK Government and devolved administrations to enable wildlife to survive, thrive and adapt to the conditions imposed by climate change(22).

It is clear that the current network of protected areas for biodiversity will be insufficient. It will be necessary to make the wider landscape more suitable for species as they shift in response to climatic change. This will require more than just better protection of existing 'hotspots', i.e. within Natura 2000 or the network of Areas of Special Scientific Interest (ASSI).

The Northern Ireland landscape will need to become more permeable to species that are attempting to respond by adjusting their distributions to new conditions(23,24). This means that maintaining existing patches of semi-natural habitat in the landscape will be important, and creating new ones will be necessary. The spatial locations of these patches will, of course, determine whether they can act as 'stepping stones' for the suite of species requiring them. The Northern Ireland Countryside Management Scheme offers an excellent mechanism to provide these patches of habitat. However, the decision to remove set-aside land will act to remove patches of habitat in Northern Ireland and needs to be replaced with another mandatory mechanism to support habitats for wildlife.

Many of our protected areas are based on the presence of rare or threatened species and habitats. Given that Alcamo & Krielman 1996 ( Global Environmental Change-Human Policy Dimensions 6: 305-334) have identified that >40% of the global land area will no longer experience climatic conditions to maintain ecosystems or biomes following climatic change, the species and habitats for which a site was originally protected will, in many cases, not be able to survive there. However, this should not mean we dispense with protected areas because these high quality natural and semi-natural areas will become important homes to new species and habitats. They will remain important nodes in the overall network of sites if some proportion of global biodiversity is to be conserved as the climate changes. It is, therefore, very important the overdue plans to declare all qualifying sites as ASSI in Northern Ireland progress as a matter of priority.

Selecting new sites that offer a diverse range of physical habitats, even if they currently do not play host to rare or threatened species, offers the best way to sustain a wide diversity of species. In other words, we need to take calculated decisions if we are to maximise our ability to conserve biodiversity in a changing climate, accepting uncertainty requires a refreshed approach to site selection(25). We must, however, continue to identify and protect less common physical habitats as well.

To ensure wildlife can adapt to a changing climate we propose the Northern Ireland Government adopts the following principles :

We have attached a copy of our document ‘Climate Change: Wildlife and Adaptation. 20 Tough Questions, 20 Rough Answers’ so that the Committee can understand the issues around adaptation in more detail and the positive agenda we are suggesting to tackle this challenging area .

Mitigating the causes of climate change

The United Nation’s IPCC has published figures which show the likely impacts for different levels of warming. They have included information on the impacts on ecosystems that support global biodiversity. Their assessment suggest that extinctions rates are likely to be increased with about a one degree Celsius rise in global mean temperature, and above a two degree Celsius rise the prospects are potentially catastrophic. This is why we do not wish to see global mean temperature rise above more than two degrees Celsius and advocate policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

In their fourth assessment report, the IPCC examined the probabilities of staying below particular human-induced temperature rises for a range of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. They have shown that to be reasonably sure of staying below two degrees Celsius temperature rise, concentrations of all greenhouse gases must stabilise at less than 430 ppm, and to be fairly certain they need to be below 370 ppm. More recently, in the light of some new research findings, an increasing number of scientists are calling for the level of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere to be stabilised at a significantly lower level than previously recommended, i.e. as low as 350 ppm CO 2 equivalent(26).

To stay within safe levels, developed countries need to cut emissions by between 25% and 40% by 2020 and by 80% to 95% by 2050, according to the IPCC.

Under the Climate Change Act 2008, the UK Government has agreed that it should aim to reduce Kyoto greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. The RSPB, as a member of the Stop Climate Chaos coalition, campaigned to ensure this target was adopted. This target is also accepted by the independent UK Climate Change Committee as an appropriate UK contribution to a global deal aiming to reduce Kyoto greenhouse gas emissions to between 20-24 billion tonnes by 2050. The UK is also committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2020 relative to 1990 levels, as recommended by the UK Climate Change Committee. Northern Ireland needs to play its part in meeting this target and must set legally-binding targets to reduce emissions.

The Northern Ireland administration is also committed, as part of the UK, to meeting its part of 20% of all energy supply being from appropriate renewable sources by 2020, as set out in the EU Renewable Energy Directive(27).

To consider the necessary actions and a route map for each significant sector in Northern Ireland

The UK Climate Change Committee has proposed that the 80% target should apply to the sum of all sectors of the UK economy, including international aviation and shipping(28).

The RSPB, with WWF, contributed to an analysis by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) of the route map for meeting the 80% target in the most cost-effective way. We have attached a copy of this report for the Committee’s use. This analysis resulted in several clear general recommendations;

More specifically to Northern Ireland, the UK Climate Change Committee has identified that we could reduce our emissions by 2 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent in 2020 by:

The use of land to abate climate change is receiving much attention. Peatland restoration has been identified as a potential land-use mechanism for storing carbon and we are urging governments to examine the carbon value of peatland conservation. Given the extent of the peatland resource available in Northern Ireland, this research to quantify carbon savings through the management and restoration of this habitat should be prioritised.

Reducing energy use

A reduction in around 25% in energy use by 2020 is needed for the UK to achieve its medium and long-term climate change goals. This will require action across all sectors, and will need to involve behavioural change, infrastructure investment, and adoption of best available technologies.

The RSPB has always been strong supporter of demand management and energy efficiency measures, since they are generally the most cost effective and sustainable approach to cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

The UK Climate Change Committee has identified that, because there is little gas central heating in Northern Ireland, we could reduce emissions further by replacing carbon-emitting heating (e.g. from oil) to low-carbon technologies (e.g. combined heat and power, biomass).

Investing in renewable energy

Given the likely halt in investment in new coal capacity in Northern Ireland, there are excellent conditions to invest in low or zero-carbon energy options as an alternative. Such investment is an essential component of a climate change programme capable of achieving cuts at the scale and speed required.

Despite having some of the best renewable resources in Europe, the UK as a whole has a very poor record in deploying renewable energy, running at third bottom in the EU league table. With the advent of the EU Renewable Energy Directive, the chance to increase renewables has arisen.

Renewable energy has significant advantages above and beyond its contribution to managing climate change; deployed at scale, renewable sources would help protect future Northern Ireland customers and businesses from fossil fuel price rises and increased dependence on fuel sources from abroad. However, a renewables ‘revolution’ on this scale could pose a threat to the natural environment and we must ensure that it is developed with true sustainability in mind.

The UK Climate Change Committee have identified that Northern Ireland has potential for onshore and offshore wind-generated power. They also identify the potential for tidal and wave technologies here. The RSPB has produced a document entitled ‘Power to the Planet’ that sets out a truly sustainable approach to the development of renewable energy projects. We have attached a copy of this document for the Committee’s use.

The Northern Ireland administration has the powers to approve onshore power generation and offshore capacity in adjacent waters. The administration is also responsible for consenting overhead electrical cables above 20kV and for investing in renewable technologies here.

The RSPB believes that the Northern Ireland Assembly should commit to the deployment of renewable energy in harmony with the natural environment and that this can play a major role in helping the UK to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. The development of a new Strategic Energy Framework for Northern Ireland in 2009 offers a superb opportunity to embed the commitment to renewable energy in Northern Ireland.

To identify the costs associated with meeting these objectives and compare them with the costs that will be incurred if they are not achieved.

The UK Climate Change Committee has calculated that the costs to the UK from reducing emissions by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 can be made affordable. They estimate this at 1-2% of GDP in 2050. This estimate follows those provided by the Stern Review and other global and UK studies, including that undertaken by the IPRR with support from the RSPB and WWF (see above).

While the sums involved may appear large, by 2050 the UK economy is due to triple in size, even with a 80% reduction in emissions. GDP could reach the 2050 ‘business-as-usual’ level less than two years later, in the spring of 2052. The costs of meeting the 80% target are also likely to be dwarfed by the costs of unmitigated climate change, which the Stern Review estimated would reduce global GDP by between 5% and 20%.

The UK Climate Change Committee analysed the potential economic impacts for Northern Ireland. In terms of Gross Value Added (GVA), they predict that sectors at risk from reduced national production account for only 0.1% of GVA. They have estimated that employment losses would amount to less than 0.5% and could be replaced with new jobs created in a low-carbon economy (e.g. in renewable technologies).

With regard to fuel poverty, the UK Climate Change Committee also estimates that there will be 220,000 households in fuel poverty in 2020 and electricity impacts could result in an additional 20,000 households entering fuel poverty. However, energy efficiency improvements could remove 20,000 households from fuel poverty, thus fully offsetting any increase. They suggest that income transfers and social tariffs for fuels are required to address fuel poverty impacts in Northern Ireland regardless of the impacts of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

To identify a formal cost effective mechanism for assessing the potential impact of new policies on climate change/CO2 emissions

A requirement is being developed at Westminster to assess all policies for greenhouse gas emissions. If, as recommended by the UK Climate Change Committee, all UK administrations are eventually responsible for their own greenhouse gas budgets, it is essential that all new policy decisions are assessed to establish any likely rise or fall in greenhouse gas emissions associated with their implementation, and the resultant overall impact on greenhouse gas budgets.

To make recommendations for appropriate targets/actions that could be included in the new Northern Ireland Sustainable Development Implementation Plan

Given our concerns outlined in the earlier parts of our response, we believe the Northern Ireland Government should commit to:

To help wildlife to adapt to inevitable changes in climate, we believe the Northern Ireland Government should commit to:

To make recommendations on a public service agreement for the DOE Climate Change Unit’s commitments in the second Programme for Government that will ensure Northern Ireland will meet its climate change obligations

Given our concerns outlined in the earlier parts of our response, we believe the Department of the Environment should commit to a Public Service Agreement that captures the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help citizens and the wildlife of Northern Ireland to adapt to the changes we face as the climate inevitably changes in the future.

To consider what secondary legislation raising powers within the UK Climate Change Act would contribute to Northern Ireland’s commitment to the UK Climate Change Act

No comments.

To express views on if and how the Assembly might conduct more effective scrutiny of climate change responsibilities across all relevant departments

Following the lead taken by the UK and Scottish governments, we agree with the UK Climate Change Committee that the Northern Ireland Government should adopt a carbon budget. This would establish absolute limits on emissions during the Programme for Government. Responsibility for a carbon budget would require assessment of any likely decrease or increase in greenhouse gas emissions associated with new policy decisions, and thereby the impact of these on the budget overall.

To produce a report on the findings and recommendations of the inquiry by September 2009

The RSPB hopes that the Environment Committee finds our written response useful in their deliberations. If deemed appropriate, we would be delighted to make further representation to the Committee orally in due course. We would also be pleased to provide the Committee with any further information that may have been referred to in this response.

Prepared by Dr. James Robinson (Conservation Manager)
RSPB Northern Ireland, Belvoir Park Forest, Belfast BT8 7QT
Tel: (028) 9049 1547
Email: james.robinson@rspb.org.uk

References

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(21) http://www.ni-environment.gov.uk/biodiversity/nh-research/nicountrysidesurvey-2/nics2007-news.htm
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(27) Commission of the European Communities (2008) Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources. Brussels.
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